I appeared on NHL Home Ice’s The War Room earlier this week. Listen to my conversation with Mick Kern and Peter Berce here, touching on my interview with Hartford’s Howard Baldwin, GVT, and power rankings.
Thanks to Benjamin Boyd, I also appeared on KMOX in St. Louis, discussing some recent trends in the NHL and the trade deadline. Listen here.
As some regular readers are well aware of, I am not fan of the current CHL-NHL arrangement for keeping players drafted from the CHL from advancing to the AHL until they are 20. I’ve written about my opposition to the agreement here and my three part (One, two and three) recommendation to change the current system.
So it should go without saying then that I was intrigued by this Vancouver Sun piece where Lightning GM Steve Yzerman was asked on the topic,
Yzerman believes players with three seasons of junior experience should be allowed to play in the American Hockey League. As it stands, junior-aged players can play only in the Canadian Hockey League or in the NHL.
“We talk about it all the time,” Yzerman told the Tampa Bay Times. “We would like to have, particularly guys who have played three years in junior that when we feel it’s time to go to another level, we’d rather see them in the American League.”
Now the three year thing is a bit peculiar because it fits right into Yzerman’s current issue with Brett Connolly likely needing AHL time. In my opinion if you’re going to open up that door half-way, may as well go the distance and make it universal for post-draft CHL prospects.
Otherwise you’re just drawing an arbitrary line that does not benefit players in every case. I could see a partial argument of trying to preserve CHL talent level, but the second this topic hits the discussion floor it’s clear where a team’s priorities really are.
However what was more interesting is what was said about this on CBC’s Hotstove:
Francis: The agreement between the CHL and the NHL ends in July. I’ve talked to some people in the CHL, they are furious at the mere mention of this because they really think it would hurt the biggest developmental league the NHL has.
My take: The fact it ends in July is a HUGE detail for this issue. The CHL-NHL agreement has been a huge secret and so hard to get any actual information on, so such a crucial aspect being revealed is significant. Next is the CHL’s complaint about the league suffering, here was what I said on that last year:
Not the fact that the CHL losing a fair proportion of their top players will hurt their finances, but that said claim is of such significant leverage for the CHL that the NHL agreed to the current system. The average CHL team is worth around $7M in value (stick tap to Neate Sager for that), players get paid under two grand per month give or take, leagues’ average attendance numbers hover around three to four thousand per game, and they get TV coverage on several regional stations and at times even national ones. Given all that, even with expenses like the rinks and paying employees, I find it hard to believe that the CHL losing some of its best 18 and 19 year olds would cause the league to go under, because from the NHL’s standpoint that should be the line where it starts to matter. The NCAA regularly takes some of the USHL’s best young players, yet they survive in a much less popular league.
Now this isn’t a perfectly transferable issue to the USHL, but even still I find it very, very hard to believe the CHL would go under. What would happen is the talent level would go down, and that’s something everyone would have to live with. The CHL doesn’t have much leverage in this topic aside from things like pulling the Top Prospects game.
Then for some reason, Glenn Healy said this on the topic,
Healy: College hockey want to have a later draft, so for both plans, good luck getting that past the PA.
My take: Healy who is a former PA exec, I’m not exactly sure what he’s negotiating for here. This agreement ending is good for the players. Their ELC’s don’t start in Junior, they would start in the AHL and could approach Restricted Free Agency much quicker. Francis says above this will be a huge CBA issue. I fail to see how it would be so contentious unless the Entry-Level system doesn’t change in the new CBA which is highly doubtful.
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Hopefully this talk leads to the changes that need to happen and ending the current agreement come this summer. A name like Yzerman talking about it is a good start.
The Rangers dealt Christensen to the Wild for Casey Wellman. Here are my thoughts on Mr. Wellman based on my observations and talking to scouts:
Casey Wellman was a top college free agent during the 2009-10 season with many scouts thinking he had top-six potential. He’s an above-average skater with a great top gear who can flash high-end ability in that area. He also is a pretty good shooter who can beat the league average in terms of finishing rate. He plays with energy and has a chance to play a variety of roles but he’s more suited as a scorer.
I’ve gotten split reports on him. Some scouts still think he has a shot to be an NHL’er, some think he can score in the NHL and others think career AHL’er. The Rangers aren’t an easy team to break through on, but I could see him stepping in at some point in a bottom line role or if the Rangers really like his skill he could slide into a trigger role on the power play. The former seems much more likely in my opinion.
#Caps swing a pair of minor deals: F Matt Ford to Philly for D Kevin Marshall and D Danny Richmond to Colorado for C Mike Carman.
I have no idea who Ford or Richmond are, mostly because nobody in the industry has ever mentioned their names to me or indicated they were worth knowing.
Marshall I think is the best piece here, and I say that as conservatively as I can. He’s a very physical defensive defenseman with marginal offensive upside and is ok in his own end. A likely projection is a #7, but may top out as an ok 6.
Carman last year I thought had a good shot to be a 4th line energy player in the NHL, but he hasn’t progressed as I would have hoped. For a 6′0 player not sure he has the speed/size combo needed for that role considering he has very little skill or hockey sense.
A minor trade took place today with the Calgary Flames trading John Negrin to the Winnipeg Jets for forward Akim Aliu.
This likely ends up a non-NHL deal, as while both players at some point in time had a fair chance to become NHL’ers, their development has traveled down the wrong path. John Negrin was seen as a possible fine offensive defenseman who (before the knee problems) was a very good skater who could make things happen on the power play but several significant injuries have really derailed his pro hopes.
Akim Aliu has had his own issues during his time as a prospect, the specific details of which I’m not going to get into. However I like him a little more than Negrin and think there still is some potential NHL life in him albeit not much. He’s a pretty good skater who when he’s on, can be a pretty darn good power forward from a checking/energy standpoint as he has some pretty desirable physical tools. Aliu is a limited offensive guy thought with horrendous hockey sense that is below replacement level and wavering effort levels. If he does pan out, it would be as a limited minutes 4th line player.
The Calgary Flames and Chicago Blackhawks made a minor trade Friday with Brendan Morrison and his expiring contract (and career) going to the Blackhawks for defenseman prospect Brian Connelly.
Connelly currently is 25 years old in the AHL, is an RFA at the end of the season and there was really no path forward for him in Chicago. The NHL team is stacked, Dylan Olsen’s significant progression ended up with him passing Connelly on the depth chart and Shawn Lalonde is as well despite his poor season this year in Rockford.
Connelly will get a better chance in Calgary, although the Flames shouldn’t expect a whole lot out of him. Connelly has been one of the AHL’s most dynamic offensive defensemen the last two seasons as he’s a tremendous passer who can really run a power play and can make the occasional “wow” type of distribution. He’s an above-average skater who can lead/join the rush well and has a nice overall skill package. Aside from his underwhelming size, Connelly’s main issue has been his defensive game as years ago he was considered horrible in that area and while with time he has shown improvement it still isn’t really sufficient for top level hockey when you take into account his frame.
I think he still has a shot though to be a 6/7 defenseman in the NHL who has to be guarded usage-wise and can be a quite notable power play specialist.
In case you missed it, here’s the podcast of my appearance of The War Room (NHL Home Ice, XM Radio channel 92), with Mick Kern and Peter Berce from January 18.
Topics included the best and worst free agent signings of the summer, and team power rankings.
This time around, there’s no special guest, as hosts Matthew Coller and Timo Seppa have observed the Buffalo Sabres closely over the past few years. Springboarding off Timo covering the Sabres 4-2 loss against the Islanders (and worse, as far as play on the ice), the guys dive into all aspects of Buffalo’s disappointing season: new ownership, long tenured GM and head coach, offseason moves, a disappointing lineup, and goalie controversy.
Hosts Matt Coller and Timo Seppa are joined by Kent Wilson to discuss the Calgary Flames, and bad contracts. And there’s this Winter Classic thingie to discuss. Recorded January 4.
1:45 Winter Classic. Timo thinks the first half of the game was “brutal”, reminiscent of the Boston-Philadelphia game two years ago. Mike Rupp’s goals annoyed Matt. Is the concept getting stale? Questionable ending. Does it need a change? Matt throws a few ideas at the wall, like playing the All-Star Game outdoors. Timo warns that the weather could be a disaster some year.
15:30 Kent Wilson, managing editor of Flames Nation and Hockey Prospectus author, comes on to talk about the struggles of his hometown Calgary Flames. Possession issues of the top lines, the “inverted pyramid”. Trade Iginla? Who else would have any value? Looking back at the Calgary-Buffalo trade of the past offseason (this is before Chris Butler’s -7 against Boston). Reflections on the Edmonton Oilers, from all of our recent viewings. Would the Panthers model work for the Flames? Kent is not wearing pants, folks.
36:00 Riffing off of Timo’s recent ESPN Insider article, the trio talks about some of the worst signings of the past summer. Leino, Ehrhoff, Brad Richards, Bryzgalov. Goaltender contracts in general. Matt’s weekly Ryan Miller mention. The Steve Mason cautionary example.
58:30 In the final segment, we talk about John Tortorella’s “inflammatory” postgame press conference. Should coaches be allowed to call out the refs?
What may have seemed like a formality to some when the decision from the Board of Governors came down on just over one month ago, may instead be a harbinger of upcoming labor strife instead. Today, the NHLPA officially told the League of its refusal to consent to the proposed conference realignment.
What does this mean? For starters, the league will continue in its current set-up next season, as Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly pointed out in an official statement on the League’s website, “Because we have already been forced to delay, and as a result are already late in beginning the process of preparing next season’s schedule, we have no choice but to abandon our intention to implement the Realignment Plan and modified Playoff Format for next season.”
Daly went on to express severe disappointment with the decision of the NHLPA and pointed out the the League will explore legal options. The CBA, which is set to expire next summer, now has a new hot-button issue between the two sides. With many other important issues expected to be tabled during the upcoming negotiations, including the salary cap/floor structure, hockey-related revenue, safety issues, participation in 2014 in the Sochi Winter Olympics, and now, the conference structure. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out which way the two sides are leaning and what concessions will be required from both parties to avoid a work stoppage.
The NHLPA has responded to Daly’s charges by saying that they were willing to negotiate a realignment for next season, but that the League mandated today as a hard deadline, so they refused. In any case, both sides have now marked their respective territories. A line has been drawn and mistrust has now been established. Realignment, previously seen as a solution to some of the problems facing the the League at its structural core (Winnipeg as part of the Southeast division, for example), is now a bargaining chip.
Despite the loud opening salvo fired by the NHLPA, it is by no means a guarantee that next season will be truncated. Both parties saw how receptive fans were to the thought of a strike in the NFL this past summer and the damage incurred by the NBA (their direct competitors for daily sporting entertainment in the winter months) until just recently and would not wish to push their own game any more into the fringes than it already is. But the fact is that the NHL is not used to the NHLPA having a strong voice. Previous union heads were weakened by apathy among the constituents and general lack of cohesion. Donald Fehr, new union boss, has a history as a consensus maker among rich young athletes, built from his background with the most powerful sporting union on the planet, that of the MLBPA.
It says here that the next CBA will be much more player friendly than the last, especially if the League locks out the players, effectively cutting off their noses to spite their collective face.
