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December 4, 2010
Up and Coming
Inductinator on Goaltenders, and Final Analysis

by Iain Fyffe

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In the past two articles about the Inductinator, we looked at the forwards and defensemen that you can expect to go into the Hall in the next few years. Remember that the Inductinator is not designed to determine who should be inducted into the Hall of Fame based on merit; rather it predicts who will be inducted based on the Hall's recent voting record. Analyzing NHL defensemen, forwards and goaltenders seperately, any player with an Inductinator score of 100 or more should be expected to get into the Hall of Fame, with the number of years of expected wait time determined by the specific score. Players are eligible for the Hall after having been retired for three years, so if a player who retired in 2010 is estimated to have a 2-year wait before being inducted, he is expected to be honored in 2015.

This time we'll look at the results goaltenders, and wrap things up with a summary of how the system sees the Hall of Fame results to go for the next three years.

Among modern goaltenders, we have eight Hall of Famers. They are:

Ken Dryden (1983)	Ed Giacomin (1987)	Grant Fuhr (2003)
Bernie Parent (1984)	Tony Esposito (1988)	Patrick Roy (2006)
Gerry Cheevers (1985)	Billy Smith (1983)	

Only two of these goaltenders were inducted in their first year of eligibility: Fuhr and Roy. Dryden, Esposito and Smith each had to wait a year, Parent and Cheevers waited two each, while Giacomin waited six. If we look at their scores, we see that Patrick Roy is really in a class all his own when it comes to modern Hall of Fame goalies.

Player			Wait	Score
Patrick Roy		0	572
Grant Fuhr		0	176
Ken Dryden		1	174
Billy Smith		1	151
Tony Esposito		1	144
Bernie Parent		2	126
Gerry Cheevers		2	101
Ed Giacomin		6	100

Using these numbers, we can estimate that a goaltender with an Inductinator of 200 or more is a first-year selection, that one between 150 to 199 will generally wait one year, one between 125 and 149 will wait one or two years, and one between 100 and 124 will wait between two and six years.

So what makes up a goaltender's Inductinator score? As with forwards and defensemen, the number of post-season All-Star Teams the player makes is very important. Unfortunately, among the modern Hall of Fame goalies, the most important factor appears to be Stanley Cup wins; the more, the better. This is unfortunate, since ideally the Hall would be looking at individual accomplishments rather than team ones. However, since the Inductinator is designed to predict who will be inducted, not who should be, so we use this basis. The important factors in the Inductinator score, as determined by the percentage of the scores achieved by the Hall of Fame goalies, are as follows:

Factor						Percentage
Stanley Cup wins as starter in playoffs		30.3
All-Star Teams					20.2
Win-Loss differential				19.7
Vezina Trophies					11.2
Conn Smythe Awards				7.8
Goals-Against Average relative to league	6.0
Other						4.8

There are also two adjustments applied to these factors, which simply have point values added together. An adjustment is applied If a goaltender's career games played are under 600, and if his Win-Loss differential per career game is less than .175 another adjustment in applied. This second adjustment may seem a bit convoluted, but it was the only way to get Gerry Cheevers above the magic 100 line, and he only does that if we include his WHA totals in his career numbers. This produces an interesting result later, one which might be controversial. We'll get to that in a moment.

In developing the Inductinator, and arbitrary point value is assigned to the Hart Trophy, since no modern Hall of Fame goaltender has won that Award. Among active goaltenders, Dominik Hasek won two Hart Trophies and Jose Theodore won one, and they are given credit for that.

As always, the near-misses are an interesting topic.

Player			Eligible	Score
Andy Moog		2001		95
Mike Vernon		2005		84
Tom Barrasso		2006		81
Ron Hextall		2002		52
Rogie Vachon		1985		43
John Vanbiesbrouck	2005		40

Andy Moog is tantalizingly close to meeting the Hall of Fame standard score of 100. Although he does exceedingly well is terms of Win-Loss differential, he never made an All-Star Team and never won the Vezina. And although his name is on the Stanley Cup three times with the Oilers, goalies only get points for a Cup win if they are the team's starting goaltender in the playoffs. And despite generally outperforming Grant Fuhr in the regular season, when it came time for the playoffs, it was Fuhr who got the starts. The system sees that as the cause of Moog being outside and looking in.

Let's now leave the past to look at the future. After all, that's the entire point of developing the system: who will be inducted into the Hall of Fame? You probably won't be surprised to find that two goaltenders, now nearing the ends of their careers but yet active, are absolute locks to make the Hall in their first year of eligibility: the aforementioned Dominik Hasek, and Martin Brodeur.

Player			Eligible	Score	Expected Year
Martin Brodeur		active		528	First eligible
Dominik Hasek		active		515	First eligible
Ed Belfour		2010		174	2011
Chris Osgood		Active		113	2-6 years after first eligible

Ed Belfour was eligible this past year, but didn't make it. The Inductinator expects him to make it next year. The controversial result mentioned before is the fourth man on this list: Chris Osgood. I'm sure many fans would say he's not the type of player you think of when you hear “Hall of Famer”. But based on the Hall of Fame's implicit standards for modern goalies, he should make it. He has an outstanding career Win-Loss differential, and was the starter on two Stanley Cup champion teams. He's made on All-Star Team and is very close to 400 career regular-season Wins. You may not agree, but if Gerry Cheevers is in, Osgood should be as well. Since Osgood is still active, it is possible for his score to go down before he retires, since his career GAA and Win-Loss differential could get worse, but it's unlikely he'll play enough to make any significant change in his career numbers.

After these four, there's no one else even close at this point. Curtis Joseph is fifth-best, with a score of 44. Even Jose Theodore's Hart Trophy can't lift him above a score of 19.

Now we're in a position to combine the results from the forwards, defensemen and goaltenders and see how the Inductinator expects the next three years in Hall of Fame voting to go. We can't go beyond three with any confidence, since we can't predict with any degree of confidence who will retire next summer, which will have a very significant effect on the 2014 Hall of Fame ceremonies. Here's a summary of the eligible players the system sees as being inductible:

Player			Eligible	Score	Expected Year
Chris Chelios		2013		362	2013
Scott Niedermayer	2013		201	2013
Ed Belfour		2010		174	2011
Dave Andreychuk		2009		134	2012-2020
Joe Nieuwendyk		2010		122	2013-2021
Pierre Turgeon		2010		110	2013-2021
Adam Oates		2007		109	2010-2018
Eric Lindros		2010		100	2013-2021
Peter Bondra		2010		100	2013-2021

The Inductinator sees some pretty slim pickings in terms of modern players going in to the Hall in the next three years.

In 2011, Ed Belfour should go in, and there's a very slim chance that Adam Oates will as well. Hopefully, the remaining player spots will be given to some deserving European players.

In 2012, Oates' chances are slightly better, but it's still unlikely for a few years. He's most likely to be inducted around 2014, assuming there's enough room for him, since any player that retires after the current season becomes eligible in 2013, which might crowd him out. There's also a very slim chance that Dave Andreychuk will be named in 2012, but he's more likely to be around 2016 or so.

In 2013, Chris Chelios and Scott Niedermayer are locks for induction, which leaves only two other player spots available. Oates and Andreychuk are again the best bets to claim one of these spots, since although there four forwards becoming eligible in 2013 that exceed the 100 threshold, none of them do so by very much and therefore should be expected to wait a few years for the honor.

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