Ryan Stimson (follow on twitter @RK_Stimp) is HP contributor and has written for In Lou We Trust
With recent ability at War-on-Ice to now look at Scoring Chances for when a player is on the ice, as well as individual scoring chances, it allows me to look at Scoring Chance Contribution rates in the same way I look at Corsi Contribution rates. By adding a player’s iSC (individual Scoring Chances) from War-on-Ice to the SC SAG (Scoring Chance Shot Attempts Generated) from the passing data we’re tracking, and then dividing that number by a player’s time on ice during 5v5 situations, we arrive at a Scoring Chance Contribution Rate per 60 sixty minutes. Let’s get right to it.
Since our team is still small, we’re consistently tracking only six teams and their opposition. This allows us to gather data on other teams as well, but I’m only looking at the teams we have the most data for: The New Jersey Devils, Chicago Blackhawks, New York Rangers, New York Islanders, Florida Panthers, and Washington Capitals. This represents games through January 3rd. Again, all of this data is during 5v5 play only. We’ll start with the defensemen.
You see above that John Carlson of the Capitals has the highest SCC (Scoring Chance Contributions) with 4.3 contributions per sixty minutes of ice time. David Rundblad of the Hawks is next at 3.99, followed by Mike Green at 3.79, Eric Gelinas at 3.71, and Nick Leddy rounds out the top five at 3.68.
The column to the right indicates a player’s passing contributions only. You’ll notice some players near the top contribute more heavily from passing than others, and you’ll also notice Marek Zidlicky at the bottom of the chart: the best SC SAG rate, but that accounts for nearly all of his Scoring Chance Contributions.
Moving to the forwards, I included all forwards from these six teams that had over 10 SCC/60, which gave me eighteen skaters. Alex Ovechkin (14.97), Marian Hossa (14.29), Patrick Sharp (13.15), Anders Lee (12.16), and John Tavares (11.93) make up the top five in terms of SCC/60. Again, you’ll see the passing contributions vary in the right hand column. In fact, they vary so much that if I resort the list based on passing contributions first, all but four forwards are replaced. I kept the first eighteen skaters to keep it uniform.
Ovechkin, Hossa, and Sharp are replaced by Jonathan Toews (5.51), Scott Gomez (5.0), and Nicklas Backstrom (4.94). Only Patrick Kane, Jaromir Jagr, Ovehckin, and Sharp made it on both lists, highlighting their shooting and passing contributions.
What does this tell us? Well, as sites like War-on-Ice grow and include more data, we can combine that will tracked data to give us a bit more of a player’s overall contributions, both overall and in specific areas of the ice—in this case, scoring chances.
A Correction on Shooting Percentage
In one of my previous articles, I illustrated how we’re seeing teams consistently shoot at a higher percentage from passes as opposed to overall shooting percentage. As I reviewed our spreadsheets, I noticed an error that previously exaggerated the difference between the two. Below is a corrected chart.
So, we’re still seeing teams shoot at a higher percentage for the most part, but some teams (Devils, Islanders) are either just above or just below their overall 5v5 shooting percentage. Through the 225 games we’ve tracked, teams on average are shooting 1.5% better from passes than their overall shots.