Edmonton is en route to yet another lottery pick, as the team hasn’t really improved all that much from when Rebuild I (Rebuild II?) began. An interesting theme around the Oilers and their rebuild, is the development of their three first overall picks. Below is a chart showing how first overalls over the last 20 years have fared.
Clicking on the image, the Edmonton three are bolded. The lockout season in 2012-13 and this season are pro-rated. I’m well aware GVT won’t disclose everything about a player especially in the fancystat era, but for comparing across populations the stat can be very useful.
Hall has been producing at a pretty standard rate for a first overall, while Nugent-Hopkins has been good, but still towards the bottom-end of the scale. Yakupov is as many would understand from following him or the Oilers this season, where the alarm bells may be going off. He’s had the worst 20 year old season per GVT of any first overall forward in the last 20 years–below Patrik Stefan.
Now obviously one shouldn’t make drastic conclusions from this. Every player is different, and this isn’t a huge sample set (not to mention Edmonton just seems like a toxic place at the moment). I still believe in Nuge and Yakupov that they could be great players, with an obvious lean to Hopkins as of now. However both have been performing below their first overall peers on an output level and that should be a concern.