February 17, 2011
Team Prospectus
San Jose Sharks

by Timo Seppa

Displaying pretext

TEAM STATS

San Jose Sharks, 2009-10
Goals For: 	264	4th 
Goals Against: 	215	7th
GVT: 		49	4th
Points:		113	2nd

VUKOTA Projection for 2010-11
Goals For: 	239	6th 
Goals Against: 	235	20th
GVT: 		3	12th
Points:		92	12th

On the surface, it looks like VUKOTA pegged the San Jose pretty well, looking for the Sharks to come down to earth after several seasons near the top of the NHL's regular season mountain. And sure enough, as of February 16, they're down a notch in the standings, tied for 4th through 8th place with a whopping five other teams in the ongoing Western Conference logjam. Yet it's their goal scoring that's seen a decline from 4th to 16th in the league (from 3.13 GF to 2.71 GF), while their goal prevention has essentially remained at the same level (2.59 GA after going 2.55 GA) as when they were backstopped by Evgeni Nabokov and his surprising .922 save percentage. The pendulum is swinging in the right direction for the Sharks though, as San Jose has gone 9-1-2 over their last dozen games, with their only regulation loss coming against the suddenly unbeatable New Jersey Devils.

If you're looking for a good reason why San Jose has gone from a league best 5.0 shot differential in 2008-09 to a middle-of-the-pack 0.3 shot differential in 2009-10 and back to a league-best 5.3 shot differential thus far this season, you can look to the number of penalties taken and drawn by the Sharks in each of the three seasons. San Jose went from an outstanding +54 net penalties (+0.66 per game) to -18 (-0.22 per game) and back up to +20 through 54 games (+0.34 per game) this season. Having that big swing in power plays makes a big difference as to which net is having the shots directed at it.

And if you're looking for one reason for San Jose's improvement in 2010-11, look to the departure of defenseman Brad Staubitz, who was responsible for a ridiculous -3.0 net penalties per 60 minutes in 2009-10. Staubitz has now taken that "skill set" to Minnesota, where he yet again has the distinction of having more penalties taken per 60 minutes than any other player with as many games played.