March 3, 2013
Shots On Goal
The Rundown, Week 7

by Ryan Schwepfinger

Goaltending is fickle. Difficult to manage, and even more difficult to project, goaltending can singlehandedly make or break a team in both real life and fantasy hockey. Making goaltending more perplexing for the statistics-oriented community is the fact that separating team contributions from those of a goaltender is a difficult task.

For fantasy hockey leagues, however, it is important to remember the statistics we are looking for: wins, goals against average, save percentage, and shutouts. These are all metrics heavily dependent on team quality and performance, and because of that, we can use the same performance metrics we use for skaters to evaluate goaltenders for fantasy purposes. We do not need to try to answer the question of separating goaltender performance from team performance, we just need to generate the necessary statistics. I often say that in fantasy, we buy and sell numbers rather than players, and that is absolutely the case when it comes to netminders.

For that reason, I often disregard the actual goaltender entirely when analyzing the position for fantasy. Talent matters, but for the most part, we want to own goaltenders from high-possession, high-scoring, well-disciplined teams. I would be interested in starting the goaltender from the Los Angeles Kings, a 60% close-game Fenwick club, no matter who it was, for example.

When deciding what skaters to buy low on, my usual strategy is to target players who have high possession numbers combined with a low shooting percentage. For goaltenders, the strategy is the same: target those from high-possession teams who have been unlucky (measured by save percentage). Therefore, my top three goaltender "buys" are Jonathan Quick, Jaroslav Halak, and Jimmy Howard. These three players rank 26th, 28th, and 33rd, respectively, in the latest GVT among goaltenders, yet play for strong possession-oriented teams in situations where they should get most of the starts.

Inversely, my goaltender "sells" are Devan Dubnyk, Ben Scrivens/James Reimer, and Viktor Fasth. All four rank in the top 14 of goaltenders in GVT, yet play for bottom-10 possession teams. For the same reason that I would sell on Edmonton, Toronto, and Anaheim skaters with unusual shooting success, I want to sell the goaltenders from these teams with similarly unusual success.

As always, there are exceptions: one large exception, in this case. Pekka Rinne continues to defy the odds by performing exceptionally in front of a team that regularly gets outshot—his sample size over the past several seasons is large enough that I can uncomfortably state him as a reliable option.

Finally, watch the situation in Ottawa carefully: losing Erik Karlsson, a possession monster, has resulted in a slow close-game Fenwick decline for the Senators over the past few weeks. Ben Bishop has performed admirably in Craig Anderson's absence, but this is looking like a situation I would prefer to avoid.

A few weeks ago, on Hockey Prospectus Radio, I was prompted to discuss goaltending through this introductory question: "Do you like goalies?" At the immediate moment, it seemed more facetious than serious. When I thought about it, I realized that for fantasy, the answer is often a strong no. Like any owner, it is frustrating when my perfect matchup results in a four-goals-against loss, or when my opponent records two shutouts in a week. Short-term goaltending is impossible to predict. Focus on the long term, and base your decision making on logic and sound reasoning. Jonathan Quick's Stanley Cup run did not come out of nowhere to those who followed the possession numbers, and there is no reason why that logic will not work for your fantasy team as well.

This week's results:

Hot Matchups (start your players against these teams): Columbus, Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Washington, Colorado (Florida, New York Islanders, Calgary, Philadelphia).

Cold Matchups: Los Angeles, Boston, Chicago, New York Rangers, Montreal, San Jose (Vancouver, New Jersey, Ottawa).

Hot Offenses (teams whose production has been favorable for fantasy success): St. Louis, Boston, Chicago, Montreal, Pittsburgh (Carolina, Detroit).

Cold Offenses: Columbus, Buffalo, Minnesota, Edmonton, Nashville (Colorado, Florida).

Now, to the tables.  

This column has tracked the Blackhawks' homestand carefully over the past few weeks, remarking on their slow close-game Fenwick climb from 17th to 15th to 13th. This week, that ranking has surged all the way to fourth. This club is the real deal. Their even-strength 5v5 shooting percentage is still fourth in the NHL at 9.5%, a tad fortunate, but their possession numbers are strong enough that even if the shooting percentage dips, there will be enough gross shots taken that this club will score goals. Consider the three teams ahead of them: Anaheim, Tampa Bay, and Toronto. These are three teams in the bottom 10 of close-game Fenwick. They are routinely outattempted; they need high shooting percentages to win consistently. The Blackhawks are in a different situation: when their percentages regress, they still have the ability to generate enough shots to win on volume alone. Patrick Kane and Patrick Sharp, two players with ominously low Corsi numbers given their output, have improved twofold over the past three weeks. Positive signs of improvement all around from this team, which is terrifying to consider for the rest of the NHL.

Early on, there was a wide gap between the Canadiens' home/road close-game Fenwick splits. Chalk that up to small sample size, as the Habs are now a bit more balanced. Although they are on the road all week, their matchups are phenomenal. Max Pacioretty's relative Corsi of 30.5 is second among all forwards who have played at least 10 games, trailing only the defensively-used Joakim Andersson. Speaking of the Red Wings, Andersson-Tomas Tatar-Patrick Eaves may be the most underrated real-life line in the NHL, as the three have averaged a relative Corsi of 24.9 despite having some of the most defensive zone start ratios on the club.  

Jonathan Huberdeau draws a lot of attention, but the best Calder Trophy candidate on the Florida Panthers just may be Drew Shore, who is eighth among rookie skaters in points despite recording a personal shooting percentage of just 3.6%. Consider that rookie scoring leader Cory Conacher's individual shooting percentage is 18.4%. Shore is bound to start scoring more goals given his favorable offensive zone starts and his excellent Corsi numbers. Consider adding the former University of Denver star.

When Erik Karlsson went down with his gruesome injury, it was natural to speculate who would see a large minutes increase to compensate. The answer seems to be Eric Gryba, who was called up immediately, and has filled Karlsson's even strength role alongside Marc Methot to the tune of 21:02 time on ice per game. Gryba is no Karlsson, as his relative Corsi of -18.2 is nearly 40 shots per 60 minutes behind Karlsson's mark of 20.2. The replacement of Karlsson has sent the Senators plummeting down the close-game Fenwick rankings, but the team continues to win, going 5-1-1 in their last seven games (three of those wins were in shootouts, however). I cannot feel good about the team's drop in possession without Karlsson.

Colorado gets Ryan O'Reilly back perhaps earlier than expected, and many are wondering what his fantasy value will be like moving forward. Proponents of statistics need no reminder that this is a special two-way player who metrics shine an incredibly positive light on. For fantasy, it might be wise to ease the short-term expectations. For one, he will be skating with John Mitchell and Milan Hejduk on the de facto third line: the Avs are seemingly intent on not breaking up McGinn-Duchene-Parenteau and Landeskog-Stastny-Jones. O'Reilly thrived along Gabriel Landeskog last season, and it is curious to me why the two will not initially be reunited. Nevertheless, I would race to the waiver wire to acquire O'Reilly if he is still available in your league—this type of talent is rare to suddenly become available midseason, and he will receive power play time—but temper the expectations and watch the line combinations carefully.

Joining the Senators in a possession free-fall are the Calgary Flames, who have fallen all the way from fourth just two weeks ago to 17th today. A worse sign for the Flames is that several of their skaters are carrying high on-ice shooting percentages—namely Jiri Hudler (13.8%), who is a strong sell high for me despite 13 points in his first 16 games as a Flame.