February 24, 2013
Shots On Goal
The Rundown, Week 6

by Ryan Schwepfinger

As sample sizes are expanding, our ranking system is starting to display a predictable trend. For the first time, 10 teams rank as "hot matchups" and 10 rank as "cold." That number had increased to nine for first time just last week.

What does that mean, per se? For one, it means that the 15 teams that rank in the top half of the league in close-game Fenwick percentage are slowly creeping towards being the exact same group of 15 teams ranking there in fewest goals against/game—which we would expect, since when you have the puck, your opponent does not, and thus cannot score.

Naturally, the converse is also true—the 15 teams that generate the least possession now make up 10 of the lowest scoring offenses, and again, that number is trending upward. This further illustrates the importance of possession, not just for real-life NHL success, but also for consistent fantasy production.

As a second consequence, ranking schedules becomes much more difficult, as more games are color-coded, and more teams face an up-and-down week of opponents. With that in mind, it is important to focus less on the overall week of a team, and more on the individual game, especially for those in daily lineup leagues. What we want is to play our "hot system" teams against "hot matchups." As always, focus on the possession numbers, and bank on shooting percentages to even out.

The final rankings, and the two tiers within:

"Hot/favorable matchups"—Columbus, Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Florida, Washington (Colorado, Dallas, Edmonton, Philadelphia, New York Islanders)

"Cold/unfavorable matchups"—Los Angeles, Boston, Vancouver, Ottawa, San Jose, Montreal (New York Rangers, Pittsburgh, New Jersey, Chicago)

"Hot/favorable systems"—Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Montreal (Chicago, Carolina, Boston, Vancouver, Calgary, Detroit)

"Cold/unfavorable systems"—Nashville, Minnesota, Columbus, Florida, Colorado (Edmonton, Buffalo, Dallas, Phoenix)

To the tables:

Our ranking system correctly predicted a tough offensive go for the Rangers last week, which was further exacerbated by the Rick Nash injury. This week, the Blueshirts will not leave Madison Square Garden, and they will welcome three of the most favorable opponents for fantasy production (Winnipeg just missed a "red" coding). I mentioned Carl Hagelin last week, and he is a must-add player this week, as his top-line minutes and power play time are continuing to expand. For a sneakier play, look to Anton Stralman, who is the top Ranger defenseman in possession, sees power play time, and is in line for an overall role increase because of recent injuries to Michael Del Zotto, Ryan McDonagh, and Dan Girardi.

Losers of three straight, the Hurricanes might be in line for a rebound with a favorable slate of mostly Southeast Division games, which are typically great for offense (and fantasy production). The five Southeast teams all rank in the bottom eight in goals allowed per game, and the Hurricanes certainly have the skill to put pucks in the net. Injuries on the blue line create opportunities here. Joe Corvo is worth a look this week; despite his struggles earlier this season, he leads Canes defenseman in possession in his strong offensive role. While Ryan Murphy has been dominated at even strength since his call-up, his large chunk of ice-time, especially on the power play, makes him intriguing for deep leaguers.

Chicago continues to use their homestand to climb the possession ranks: the Blackhawks now rank 13th in close game Fenwick (up from 15th last week, and 17th two weeks ago). It might seem counterintuitive to suggest a team that set the record for longest point streak to begin a season has the capability to play better, but that is exactly the case. The Hawks have been getting by on a 10.1% team shooting percentage at even strength (third best in the league) but a continued possession climb would help sustain their success.

The Flyers were slighted a bit by our system this week. Their close-game Fenwick ranks 17th in the league, not quite high enough for a "hot system" ranking—but at 50.1%, they still are on the right side of 50/50, and the strength of this team's forward corps lends itself to goal scoring. Jake Voracek's hot week was no surprise—the former Blue Jacket has been far and away the top possession forward on this club, only equaled by Tye McGinn (whose value was crushed due to the return of Scott Hartnell Saturday). Matt Read's injury makes Brayden Schenn a must-add, as the younger Schenn brother exploded for three points Saturday and has settled in on the top power play unit.

The Sharks' offensive slump was predictable given the team's home/road schedule split to begin the season—San Jose went 1-4-1 on their recent six-game road trip with just seven goals scored in those six games. A big problem with this team for real-life purposes is that they are too top heavy. Their top-six forwards (Couture, Marleau, Clowe, Thornton, Pavelski, Havlat) and their top-two defensemen (Boyle, Vlasic) are indeed eight of the only nine players on this club with a positive relative Corsi (James Sheppard is the lone exception). For fantasy purposes, there is a nice buy-low situation with these select Sharks players, whose values lie somewhere in between the hot start and the recent struggles. Dan Boyle is a particularly appealing target, as his on-ice shooting percentage is by far the lowest among these players (4.3%). Back at home, your chance to strike on these Sharks might be short lived.

The return of Cam Atkinson is positive news for Columbus, which gets the Boston College product back right as Brandon Dubinsky hits the injured reserve. If he was dropped or forgotten in your league, take a chance on him as his relative Corsi is second among Jackets forwards (behind Dubinsky), and he has looked good in his two games since returning, playing top minutes. Despite his size, his skill set is more suited to a top offensive role than perhaps anyone else on this team.

It is appropriate that Tampa Bay and Anaheim rank right next to each other, as these two teams have been the standard example of "sell high" all season for their unsustainable combination of low possession and high shooting percentages. The Lightning's PDO fell eight more points this week to 1031, and they score 1.3 more goals/game at home than on the road, making those away dates with the Rangers and the Bruins this week quite daunting.

With that in mind, the time is still now to sell your Ducks, as Anaheim continues to buck the odds and win games despite a sixth-worst possession ranking. Their team 5v5 shooting percentage has not yet tapered off (12.9% this week compared to 13% last week). For as strongly as Tampa Bay's PDO at the beginning of the month predicted a downfall, Anaheim's is analogous at 1061. This could be the week we see the start of a regression. The Ducks have four games against teams that either suppress possession or have a knack for suppressing goal scoring despite poor possession.

The Kings are still defying the odds, carrying a seventh-worst 5v5 shooting percentage (7.3%), despite a league-leading 59.7% close-game Fenwick percentage, which is impressively 3.5 percentage points higher than second-place St. Louis (56.2%). You can make cases for nearly every Los Angeles skater as unlucky given that strong team possession. This is almost a carbon copy of last year's situation with this club. For leagues that count hits, consider Trevor Lewis, who has been skating alongside Jeff Carter and Mike Richards, and notched his first four points of the season over the past week doing so.

The Islanders are in the same situation as the Flyers, ranking 16th in close-game Fenwick but still carrying over 50% of the play, at 50.2%. The Islanders have been a bit luckier than the Flyers, shooting at 8.8% at 5v5 compared to Philadelphia's 7.7%, but the offense here is still greatly improved and worth your time, particularly the top line of Moulson-Tavares-Boyes. Boyes, in particular, is still available in most leagues. Lubomir Visnovsky has been impressive since debuting on Long Island, leading the club in on-ice Corsi and seeing top minutes.