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Displaying pretext
The 1996 NHL Entry Draft features a fairly thin pool of talent at the top. Fictional Saskatoon Westerns GM Ardal Ekrub uses his Project-a-Tron system each year to objectively rank available draft prospects. For the first time since taking over the team in 1983, Ekrub finds not a single player with a projected peak GVT (PGVT+) of 11 or more. Andrei Zyuzin tops the rankings with a 10.8 PGVT+. Overall, the 1988 draft was weaker at the top, but 1996 is certainly unimpressive in this regard:
Draft #1 Rank #2 Rank #3 Rank #4 Rank #5 Rank
1996 10.8 10.7 9.8 8.1 8.0
1995 11.7 11.3 11.0 9.8 9.6
1994 13.4 12.3 10.3 10.1 9.9
1993 30.0 17.8 13.9 12.4 10.3
1992 14.5 13.3 10.8 10.0 9.4
1991 28.7 13.4 13.4 13.3 12.9
1990 25.7 13.0 11.0 10.8 9.7
1989 17.1 12.4 8.5 8.2 8.2
1988 11.0 9.5 8.7 8.3 8.0
1987 17.1 12.4 8.5 8.2 8.2
1986 20.4 18.6 13.8 11.7 9.0
1985 30.0 14.0 13.0 12.3 8.9
1984 30.0 17.5 10.3 10.0 9.0
1983 11.6 11.2 11.2 10.3 9.1
The 1991 Entry Draft had an exceptional group at the top of the list, with six players who would rank first overall in 1996. The relative lack of projected superstars doesn't really affect Ekrub, of course. Generally speaking, a player with PGVT+ of 15 or more isn't going to be around when it comes time for the Sasktoon GM to make his first selection in a draft. The downside of having a team consistently at or near the top of the league standings is that you won't have an early draft pick unless you invest significant resources into trading for one. Still, Erkub has been able to select some of the best players available, as he sees them, because the other teams do not recognize the value he sees in them.
Top 30 Players Available at 1996 Entry Draft
Rank Player Pos League PGVT+ Drafted
1 Zyuzin, Andrei D Rus 10.8 2
2 Briere, Daniel F QMJHL 10.7 24
3 Sturm, Marco F Ger 9.8 21
4 Phillips, Chris D WHL 8.1 1
5 Nilson, Marcus F Swe 8.0 20
6 Garon, Mathieu G QMJHL 7.5 44
7 Rasmussen, Erik F WCHA 7.3 7
8 Holden, Josh F WHL 6.8 12
9 Robinson, Todd F WHL 6.7 -
10 Kratena, Ondrej F Cze 6.7 -
11 McLean, Brett F WHL 6.6 -
12 Reasoner, Marty F HE 6.5 14
13 Corvo, Joe D CCHA 6.5 -
14 Petrunin, Andrei F Rus 6.5 61
15 Straka, Jozef F Cze 6.5 122
16 Dumont, J-P F QMJHL 6.4 3
17 Hillier, Craig G OHL 6.3 23
18 Malov, Roman F Rus 6.3 187
19 Clark, Brett D HE 6.1 154
20 Larivee, Francois G QMJHL 5.8 50
21 Staal, Kim F Swe 5.8 92
22 Kane, Boyd F WHL 5.7 72
23 Zimakov, Sergei D Rus 5.6 58
24 Kvasha, Oleg F Rus 5.4 65
25 Forsander, Johan F Swe 5.4 108
26 Posmyk, Marek D Cze 5.3 36
27 Komarniski, Zenith D WHL 5.2 75
28 Mikhailov, Egor F Rus 5.2 -
29 Ciernik, Ivan F Svk 5.2 216
30 Sim, Jonathan F OHL 5.1 70
For the third consecutive year, the Westerns are able to draft the best goaltender available, according to the Project-a-Tron. Mathieu Garon follows Jose Theodore (1994) and Martin Biron (1995) to stock Saskatoon full to the brim with quality netminding prospects. It's a bit strange that Ekrub has been able to claim these players, since usually he is only able to select "best" players if they are significantly undervalued by other teams, and Quebecois goaltenders shouldn't fall into that category given the province's reputation of producing excellent puck-stoppers. The selection of Daniel Briere (the top forward available) with the 23rd pick makes more sense in this context, since he's small, and Quebecois forwards are often undervalued for their perceived "softness" and reliance on offense rather than defense, which of course is an unfair characterization and ignores the fact that offense counts just as much as defense in hockey.
But if we compare these fictional draft results to the real life ones, we find that the Westerns value these goaltenders only slightly more than other teams, and only ended up with them because of the way the picks happened to fall in each season. Theodore was actually drafted 44th by Montreal in 1994; in our imaginary world, he was taken 26th by Saskatoon. They took Biron 15th instead of his actual 16th in 1995, and Garon 36th instead of his actual 44th. If there had been one other higher-rated player available each time, they would have none of these goaltenders. This is another illustration of how much luck comes into play in the Entry Draft.
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