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Full list of NHL Organizational Rankings
The Detroit Red Wings Top 10 Prospects
1. Gustav Nyquist, Right Wing
2. Tomas Tatar, Left Wing
3. Calle Jarnkrok, Center
4. Brendan Smith, Defense
5. Adam Almqvist, Defense
6. Teemu Pulkkinen, Right Wing
7. Riley Sheahan, Center
8. Tomas Jurco, Right Wing*
9. Alexei Marchenko, Defense
10. Jan Mursak, Right Wing
Organizational Ranking: 1st
*Ranking Explanation: Jurco was ranked behind Marchenko in my Draft Rankings, but I bumped him up based on info and reports I have accumulated since the rankings went up.
System Overview: The Red Wings have become the model of organizational building through drafting and development. In the statistical realm, we have only in the past few years advanced to the point where we truly understand the overwhelming importance of the possession trait. The Red Wings have known this for a while, and push it through their entire organization, valuing puck skills, puck-movers and hockey sense above all else. Their forward-thinking approach on top of their ability to eye the true top talents in those areas has repeatedly let them be able to find top-tier prospects beyond the first round, and that trend continues to hold.
When doing my organizational rankings, it wasn't even a debate as to who was number one. Detroit has amassed a tremendous amount of riches through their pipelines and they have nearly an entire future core coming up that can be their top players for when their current generation of key pieces move on. They never make their methods a secret, yet they still continue to stand well above their peers.
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1. Gustav Nyquist, Right Wing
Date of birth: 09/01/1989
Age: 21
Height: 5'11''
Weight: 185
Shoots: Left
Statistics: 36 GP, 18 G, 51 P (University of Maine-Hockey East)
Acquired: Fourth round, 121st overall in 2008 by Detroit
The Good: Gustav Nyquist is a dynamic playmaking winger who on a nightly basis found ways to get the crowd on their feet—it felt like a scoring chance was created every time he stepped on the ice. He's a plus thinker who sees the game at a very high level and is one of the better passers in the prospect world. He has top-end vision and can make unique distributions at a casual pace and at times looks like he has eyes in the back of his head. One NHL source said of Nyquist, "His sense and skills are extremely good; he just simply has the look of a different player." Nyquist anticipates the play off the puck extremely well, as he is able to find open holes in the defensive coverage, get in passing lanes to rack up takeaways at a notable rate, and just find ways to be around the play. From a positional play standpoint, his two-way game is very refined and as a winger is very effective defensively. Nyquist is a solid skater with a smooth stride and can get to an above-average speed but isn't a true blazer. He will go to the net, and shows no hesitation to forecheck hard.
The Bad: He has a slight frame that doesn't have much muscle on it, and has the look of a fringe physical player. He was a marked man this past season, and had a little trouble with all the physical treatment teams were giving him. At times, Nyquist can be a victim of trying to do too much with the puck and going for the big play.
Projection: An average first line winger who can safely project as a below-average first to above-average second line winger.
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2. Tomas Tatar, Left Wing
Date of birth: 12/01/1990
Age: 20
Height: 5'10''
Weight: 186
Shoots: Left
Statistics: 70 GP, 24 G, 57 P (Grand Rapids-AHL)
Acquired: Second round, 60th overall in 2009 by Detroit
The Good: I have yet to see a game this year where Tomas Tatar did not impress or hear one negative review of him from a scout. Tatar is a plus thinker with top-end offensive instincts and he just processes the play in a different way. He will execute plays that most players don't even attempt, shows great patience and poise offensively and just finds ways to be around the puck. His puck skills are above-average to plus and while he's not a huge dangler, he is very skilled and shows great coordination with the puck. He has an above-average shot and is able to score from beyond the blue paint. Tatar is a very hard worker who shows good dedication on and off the ice. He grinds it out every shift and is a pain to play against. He also has bulked up quite a bit and his off-ice work has shown dividends. Tatar's defensive game has also shown a notable amount of progression.
The Bad: Tatar shows great acceleration in his first few steps, but his top speed could use some improvement. His physical game may be slightly below-average just due to his size. There's not a lot that should hold him back from being a heck of a player, although his counting numbers this year were slightly underwhelming for the scouting reports I was getting on him.
Projection: An average first line winger who can safely project as a below-average first to above-average second line winger.
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3. Calle Jarnkrok, Center
Date of birth: 09/25/1991
Age: 19
Height: 5'11''
Weight: 165
Shoots: Right
Statistics: 49 GP, 11 G, 27 P, 16:45 ATOI (Brynas-SEL)
Acquired: Second round, 51st overall in 2010 by Detroit
The Good: Calle Jarnkrok is a very skilled player with plus puck skills and vision that allow him to be a top-end puck carrier and playmaker. He has the ability to control the play with his poise and instincts while also showing the slick hands to evade checkers. Jarnkrok is a great distributor who can make difficult feeds with ease and is the kind of player you trust to make things happen when he gets open ice. His hockey sense carries over to the defensive zone where he shows a fine defensive game in terms of coverage and positional play. Jarnkrok is a solid skater who moves around pretty fluidly and is quite an agile skater. He has a decent shot and is able to threaten with his shot if the defense respects his playmaking too much. He works hard and will go to the physical areas. He's quite competitive, and NHL sources praise his shift to shift work ethic.
The Bad: He's a slight player with a toothpick frame and is far away from being physically ready for the pro game.
Projection: An average first line center to an above-average second line center.
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4. Brendan Smith, Defense
Date of birth: 08/02/1989
Age: 21
Height: 6'2''
Weight: 195
Shoots: Left
Statistics: 63 GP, 12 G, 32 P (Grand Rapids-AHL)
Acquired: First round, 27th overall in 2007 by Detroit
The Good: Smith is a talented defenseman who performed quite well in his first professional season. He's an above-average to plus puck handler who carries the puck very well while bringing it up, he's technically sound when holding the puck and has the ability to consistently perform above-average dekes and distributions. Smith is a plus skater who is very fluid and smooth in his movements, and has the extra gear to explode up the ice. He doesn't shy from using his skating tool, and is constantly on the move all around the ice. Smith has a fine shot as well and can be a trigger man from the point. He shows a decent physical aspect to his game and does fine when it comes to battling his assignments.
The Bad: Smith can still be too much of a gambler at times offensively and needs to be more selective with his attacks. Defensively he has come a ways, but could still use some improvement in that department.
Projection: A below-average first pairing to above-average second pairing defender who easily projects into a top four.
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5. Adam Almqvist, Defense
Date of birth: 02/27/1991
Age: 20
Height: 5'11''
Weight: 174
Shoots: Left
Statistics: 52 GP, 0 G, 16 P, 19:48 ATOI (HV71-SEL)
Acquired: Seventh round, 210th overall in 2009 by Detroit
The Good: The second-to-last pick in the 2009 draft has flourished the last few seasons and has shown the indications of a great puck-moving defender. Almqvist's hockey sense is plus and he sees the ice very well. He's calm and effective with his distributions coming out of the zone and in how he controls the puck on the power play. Almqvist is an above-average passer who can push it up a distance and has the impressive technique with the puck that allows him to move it crisply and quickly. He's a refined defensive player who plays a fine positional game, uses his stick well and has the makings of a player who should play significant two-way minutes when he physically develops.
The Bad: Almqvist has a slight frame and is pretty weak physically. He can get overmatched during physical area battles, and even when he tries to close gaps on the rush he has to stick-check to get the puck off the attacker. It's not for a lack of effort in terms of his physical game, just a lack of strength. He's a below-average skater especially for his size due to a lack of strength in his lower body.
Projection: At best, an above-average second pairing defenseman who easily projects to be a decent top four defender.
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6. Teemu Pulkkinen, Right Wing
Date of birth: 01/02/1992
Age: 19
Height: 5'11''
Weight: 183
Shoots: Right
Statistics: 55 GP, 18 G, 54 P (Jokerit-SM-Liiga)
Acquired: Fourth round, 111th overall in 2010 by Detroit
The Good: Pulkkinen is a very skilled winger who may be one of the most dangerous power play options in the prospect world. He has an elite level shot and his blasts could scare the life out of anyone who tries to block it. Pulkkinen is also blessed with plus puck skills and vision which makes him a threat when he gets the puck on his stick. He can make quick, subtle moves to evade pursuit and can also show a top-level deke if needed. He's a great distributor who can make very impressive passes and his ability to see the ice is as top-level as they come. Pulkkinen has also shown a conscious effort this season to start engaging more in the corners. When his team sets up in the offensive zone or on the power play, he's as good as it gets.
The Bad: Pulkkinen is a puny player who looks very small on the ice and can be easily rubbed off pucks. His straight line speed is ok, but the skating as a whole is below-average and poor for a sub-6'0" forward and he has a bit of a knock kneed stride. His defensive game is very poor as well.
Projection: An above-average scoring second line forward ceiling who needs coaching protection and if he doesn't crack a top six, he likely doesn't play in the league.
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7. Riley Sheahan, Center
Date of birth: 12/07/1991
Age: 19
Height: 6'2''
Weight: 205
Shoots: Left
Statistics: 40 GP, 5 G, 22 P (Notre Dame-CCHA)
Acquired: First round, 21st overall in 2010 by Detroit
The Good: Sheahan is an above-average to plus passer who thinks the game quite well and sees the ice at a high level. He ran the Notre Dame power play from the point and showed the offensive instincts to be a great distributor as he can spot the smallest of gaps in the defensive coverage and consistently makes above-average passes seem effortless. His decision-making is quick and usually effective. Sheahan's defensive game is quite advanced and he plays a very effective two-way game in terms of his positional play, reads and also his physical play. He's possibly near pro strength level before his 20th birthday and is able to handle himself along the walls quite well although he's not an overly physical player. Sheahan also has a decent shot, but doesn't use it much as he is a pass-first type of player.
The Bad: Sheahan is a below-average skater who looks pretty fluid but could stand to gain an extra step speed-wise. While he played on a stacked team and was relegated to second line duties, he has yet to produce at a level his talent indicates he should.
Projection: An average second line center who safely projects as an above-average third line center.
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8. Tomas Jurco, Right Wing
Date of birth: 12/28/1992
Age: 18
Height: 6'2''
Weight: 187
Shoots: Left
Statistics: 60 GP, 31 G, 56 P (Saint John-QMJHL)
Acquired: Second round, 35th overall in 2011 by Detroit
The Good: Tomas Jurco is a very skilled puck-handler with well above-average puck skills. He is a very coordinated player who shows refined technique and impressive hand-eye coordination. Jurco is a very hard player to check one-on-one as aside from the flash he shows with the puck, he shields it well and once the defender commits one way to try and go after the puck, he has the agility to slide out and into open ice and he has the balance to handle physical contact. His speed is average but there are times when it seems below that level. There doesn't seem to be anything mechanically wrong with his stride and because of how well he turns and eludes checkers it doesn't seem to be a liability for him. Jurco has the ability to be an above-average goal scorer in regards to his shot and finishing ability, but he needs to find ways to get more opportunities in the high percentage areas.
The Bad: His effort level wavers at times as he shows good effort on the forecheck and when he has the puck, but outside of the offensive blue line he looks disinterested. His defensive hockey sense and drive need to take a few steps forward before his prospect stock can get to the next level.
Projection: Jurco has the raw tools to be an above-average second line winger, but likely projects as an average to below-average second line winger with coaching protection.
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9. Alexei Marchenko, Defense
Date of birth: 01/02/1991
Age: 19
Height: 6'2''
Weight: 184
Shoots: Right
Statistics: 23 GP, 0 G, 2 P, 13:29 ATOI (CSKA-KHL)
Acquired: Seventh round, 205th overall in 2011 by Detroit
The Good: Alexei Marchenko has flown under the radar with limited International play and has gone undrafted once, but this Russian rearguard really shone this year, and by late season he was playing top four minutes in the KHL right after his 19th birthdate. One Russian scout told me on Marchenko, "He's the best defenseman this country has produced since Dmitri Kulikov." His puck skills are pro-level, and look a grade beyond that at times. Even in the KHL as a young defenseman he was frequently the player leaned on to bring the puck out of the zone, at times showing moments of flash when doing so, and he was a primary distributor on the power play. He projects as an average physical player, and already has a decent frame but has room to fill out as well. Marchenko plays fine in front of the net and in the corners, and should he choose to cross the pond, he will transition fine. His hockey sense is an above-average tool, and while there are times he tried to go outside his means offensively with the puck, his advanced play in one of the world's best leagues, especially seeing a solid defensive game from Marchenko, is reason to like how he processes the game. His stick-work is good, and his lane and man coverage on the penalty kill is impressive.
The Bad: His skating bounces between fringe-average and a pro average tool, but he is mobile enough to stay with his checks on the rush, shows good agility, and does fine when he's going straight. I have seen some mild concerns from an intangibles perspective, but it's nitpicking more so than a legit concern with Marchenko's skill set. He doesn't have many true weaknesses, but doesn't stand out in any one area to a dynamic degree.
Projection: An average second pairing defenseman, with a safe projection as a below-average second to above-average third pairing defender.
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10. Jan Mursak, Right Wing
Date of birth: 01/20/1988
Age: 23
Height: 5'11''
Weight: 192
Shoots: Right
Statistics: 79 GP, 24 G, 42 P (Grand Rapids-AHL)
Acquired: Sixth round, 182nd overall in 2006 by Detroit
The Good: Mursak is an above-average skater who hits a desirable top speed and can get up to that top speed rather quickly. He works rather hard, and covers a lot of ice on a shift to shift basis. Mursak protects the puck well and has some skills with the puck that allow him to a decent holder and distributor of the puck. His frame has filled out rather well and despite being a sub-6'0" forward, I'd say his physical game is at pro-average as he can hold his own rather well in physical battles and goes to the net frequently. His shot is decent and he has the ability to be an average goal-scorer. Mursak's defensive game is quite good and he shows the ability to be a good two-way player who kills penalties well.
The Bad: Mursak doesn't have an above-average offensive projection, as his skills and instincts are more of the average variety, albeit not poor either. He could use just a tad more strength to really help his case to push for a full-time job. His development is more or less done, and he is what he is.
Projection: An average third line winger who safely projects into a bottom-six.
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The Sleeper: 2011 pick Ryan Sproul is the definition of a sleeper. The toolsy defenseman is big guy who skates well, has solid offensive skills and a good shot, but looked so raw in his first OHL season. From January on, he started to look more acclimated was an elite offensive force in the league.
Extra Notes:
Defenseman Max Nicastro is a defenseman with a fine frame, who skates at a decent level and has some offensive upside, but his hockey sense and decision making are poor.
Andrej Nestrasil would make a top ten list for many systems, but not this one. He's a big forward with good puck skills, who plays a smart two-way game, but his heavy feet limit him to a lower upside.
Louis Marc-Aubry is a fine two-way forward who can use his big frame to protect pucks well. He has improved his skating, but his offensive skills aren't much to write home about. He's still growing, but projects to fill out at around 210 pounds.
I haven't heard positive reports on forward Cory Emmerton, with one scout saying he's likely a career AHLer.
My reports on Ryan Sproul and Alan Quine can be found here, and on Xaiver Ouellet can be found here.
Corey Pronman is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Corey by clicking here or click here to see Corey's other articles.
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Top 10 Prospects (07/19)
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